Mathematical Bureau
Mathematical Modelling In Electricity Market

A few necessary, but boring, facts

I was born in 1983 in a small village in the Moscow region. In 2006, I graduated from Bauman Moscow State Technical University with a diploma in Information Technology Engineering. In 2012, I defended my Philosophy Thesis in applied mathematics on the subject The time series forecast model on the most similar pattern.

I started my career in the Wholesale Power Market of Russia in 2007. Since then, I have had three positions, working as:

  1. an expert in the market monitoring department in the Administrator of Trade System (Russian Power Exchange) for one year;
  2. an analyst in the power market projects department in a privately owned company, Stins Coman, for seven years;
  3. a senior analyst in the commodity research and forecast department of Thomson Reuters (Refinitiv) for three and a half years.

What I have learned about myself

I'm very consistent, not only in my job, though mathematics does require a strict consistency, but also in my life. I have developed a simple and effective method to deal with any problem that I face: step-by-step. It works excellently! I always give careful consideration before starting any project as, once started, I can't relax until the project is done.

Unfortunately, I'm a strict perfectionist; I believe that everything should be done both promptly and in the best possible way. Why unfortunately? Because the process of achieving perfection requires so much from me – my nerves, mind and physical effort – that afterwards, I feel completely exhausted. That's why I give very careful consideration before starting any project: once started, the project has to be completed to the best of my abilities.

In terms of mathematical model designing, I'm an artist. Very often, I trust not only my knowledge and experience but also my intuition. My feelings and passions take me beyond the boundaries of my expertise. This allows me to see the problem from an entirely new perspective. Frequently, I feel like an amateur and even ignorant and I embrace this feeling – it allows me to leave the templates aside. A fresh perspective together with non-templated mind helps me to find a new solution.

What I have learned about the power market

The power market is a peculiar market because electricity is a very special commodity. On one hand, the power market is based on economic rules. On the other hand, the power flow doesn't give a damn about economics. Every time you analyse and forecast the price, you need to keep in mind the supply, demand and transmission system conditions; and every time you increase the efficiency of the power plant and transmission system, you need to keep in mind the price. It is necessary to maintain a consistent mindset.

There are a lot of compromises in the power market: electricity cost versus supply security, liberalisation versus regulation, transparency versus opaqueness, electricity and capacity commodity splitting versus combining, etc. Market rules and operations could be improved endlessly. This makes it a fruitful area for a strict perfectionist.

The power supply is fundamental to the modern world. Climate changes have led to a brand new technical discussion around the power supply which, in turn, is driving new processes and technologies of power production and trading. Every time people face changes, either on economic or technical sides, mathematics becomes an essential tool to make sure we're going in the right direction. New markets, new technologies, new trading rules and new approaches in supply security need new mathematical models. Model designers should be creative and innovative.