COVID-19: Two Figures

chuchueva_eng's picture

While the Bolshoi Ballet is conquering Russian YouTube trends with the Swan Lake and Sleeping Beauty ballets (bravo, Bolshoi!), I’ve made two simple figures based on open data.

World

Number of confirmed cases in the world

Figure 1: Number of confirmed cases in the world (orange dots — actuals; blue dots — modeling result).

Impression: The curve is naturally exponential; the number of confirmed cases will probably reach 1M by Wednesday-Thursday of the next week.

Russia

Number of confirmed cases in Russia

Figure 2: Number of confirmed cases in Russia (orange dots &mdash actuals; blue dots — modeling result).

Impression: Numbers in my country are only starting to rise, thus the curve is not naturally exponential yet, so is fitted with exponential function with the base = 1.2387 (remember that the base of the natural exponential function is the Euler number = 2,7183). We will probably reach 5,000 COVID-19 cases by Friday-Saturday of the next week.

Important to understand:

  1. It all will be over when 50-70% of the world population recovers from the disease and gets immunity;
  2. The more discipline we have, the slower the number of cases increases;
  3. The slower the number of cases increases, the better our health system will be able to handle it and help those who need help;
  4. The more disciplined we are, the slower the disease will spread and more lives will be saved.

Our patience, together with discipline, is saving lives right now.

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