While the Bolshoi Ballet is conquering Russian YouTube trends with the Swan Lake and Sleeping Beauty ballets (bravo, Bolshoi!), I’ve made two simple figures based on open data.
Figure 1: Number of confirmed cases in the world (orange dots — actuals; blue dots — modeling result).
Impression: The curve is naturally exponential; the number of confirmed cases will probably reach 1M by Wednesday-Thursday of the next week.
Figure 2: Number of confirmed cases in Russia (orange dots &mdash actuals; blue dots — modeling result).
Impression: Numbers in my country are only starting to rise, thus the curve is not naturally exponential yet, so is fitted with exponential function with the base = 1.2387 (remember that the base of the natural exponential function is the Euler number = 2,7183). We will probably reach 5,000 COVID-19 cases by Friday-Saturday of the next week.
Important to understand:
- It all will be over when 50-70% of the world population recovers from the disease and gets immunity;
- The more discipline we have, the slower the number of cases increases;
- The slower the number of cases increases, the better our health system will be able to handle it and help those who need help;
- The more disciplined we are, the slower the disease will spread and more lives will be saved.
Our patience, together with discipline, is saving lives right now.